In a previous post I did say that Ségo was turning the corner after a number of gaffes. Well as it turned out that was a bit premature. Sarko definitely launched his campaign with panache. He has had the enormous advantage that all opposition within his party, the UMP, has fallen away. Sarko is benefiting from his get tough position on policing. His Karcher comments are probably doing him more good than harm. Chirac and Madame Chirac have indicated that there is life after politics and that they will miss the Elysée. Of course Chirac quickly responded that he was theorising about the future, whenever that would be, but everybody has now understood that Jaques is off for a well earned retirement in May and will not be putting too many banana skins in Sarko’s way in the meantime. He has not yet designated Sarko as his chosen successor, but that no longer seems far away. Finally Sarko looks presidential, if a bit Napoleonic in size.
Ségo just hasn’t really looked the part so far. Her blunder on the nuclear submarines, she thought there was only one and then believed there were seven (there are four) really gave the appearance of a silly woman minister only worried about feminine issues. She has made a few hints that she could be a more modern socialist. Teachers should spend more hours in school, delinquents should go to boot camp, taxes can’t rise any further, and the 35 hour working week needs to be reviewed. But she has never followed through and has, in fact, backed off each time. Hence my slight personal disillusionment. Gradually her position has deteorated in the opinion polls, now 46% in the second round to 54% for Sarko.
I believe her position reflects the conflicts within French society. It is gradually and finally dawning on people that the soak the rich traditional socialist line is not going to solve anything. From there to arriving at a set of propositions that will unite the electorate, there is still a big step to take. For thirty years we have had demagogic left governments which have been thrown out of power when they have had the temerity to explain that there was a limit to what they could give away. Only for the right to arrive in power to discover that the programme on which they were elected is supported by a small proportion of the population and not implementable. Consequence, the right ends up implementing the demagogic measures pronounced by their predecessors. If Sarko could karcherise the suburbs, and then some, I bet he can't karcherise SNCF and the profs. Hence the need for a reformed left, from which we seem almost as far away as ever.
Ségo realising time was slipping away decided to hold a big meeting this Sunday in the Parisian suburbs and finally came up with some proposals. It has been widely called her last chance in the French press. She called them her 100 proposals for a presidential pact. Indicating, that she indeed is not entirely old left she set out her stall by highlighting the economic concerns as point one. Investment in research, creation of companies, increase initiative, restructure the state. But as you can imagine most of the rest are either give aways, increase the minimum salary, or wishful thinking, decrease unemployment.
Initial reaction is favourable, but not overwhelming. At the moment Sarko looks a bit of a shoe in, will it last?
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I read a story on the wires last week saying that traffic violations, mainly speeding, have risen sharply across France lately as drivers bank on the new president declaring the usual post-election amnesty for offenders. It would be a brave candidate who said (ahead of polling day, anyway) that there would be no blanket absolution this time.
Well I haven't seen that information.
It has always been a tradition to have the amnesty and usually there has been an explosion of contraventions before the election.It was said at one point in the past to be necessary since the bureaucracy couldn't keep up.15 years ago you had a reasonable chance of never paying a fine anyway.
But I think this year both major candidates have said they won't amnesty trafic fines. I suspect that they will do an amnesty for parking fines but not speeding and drunkeness. The country is definitely changing, in that respect anyway.
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